BNC #5 Piet Viljoen half 2

Within the follow-up to his BNC#5 presentation, Piet Viljoen delves into what he thinks will occur in 2024 if both an ANC/EFF coalition or the Rainbow Coalition assumes energy and what it might imply for funding efficiency. He additionally provides his ideas on Bitcoin and its place in at present’s turbulent society.

Extracts from the interview

Piet Viljoen on what would occur if the Rainbow Coalition needed to assume energy in 2024

Properly, then I feel our belongings right here would fly. It will be the perfect performing nation on the earth by way of funding efficiency. If that occurred, as a result of then you’ve got long run traders who would recognise that constructions would stay intact, could be strengthened, and looting would cut back. And look, all politicians loot. Just a few politicians loot greater than others. Looting would cut back. It will be a greater surroundings wherein to make long run funding selections for companies, which is an effective surroundings for traders. and in the meanwhile shares are discounting a nasty consequence, not the worst consequence, however they’re discounting a nasty consequence.

So if they’ve any higher consequence, then share costs would rerate fairly dramatically. I imply, as I mentioned, the banks have charges of seven or eight in South Africa, you recognize, why not in a PE of 12 or 13 if issues normalise, which is, you recognize, the place they need to commerce, that’s a 50% uplift simply in capital worth. And then you definitely’ve acquired progress of 20% carrying on as a result of now persons are investing.

Learn Extra: BNC#5 – Piet Viljoen: You aren’t Chuck Norris, benefit from valuations however don’t put all of your cash in SA

His views on Bitcoin

I feel there’s a spot for bitcoin. I feel Bitcoin and Ethereum, these form of dominant cash, you possibly can truly name them packages moderately than cash. I feel cash are a little bit of a misnomer. I feel there’s an area for them. In nations with unstable political methods, financial methods the place you’ve got increasingly controls coming by way of the motion of capital, that form of factor. To maneuver bitcoins around the globe is sort of simple. In order that to me is a cloud for these kinds of digital tokens, if you wish to name it that. So I feel it’s clearly a base for that. However on the finish of the day, this stuff are commodities and the worth is set by the price of mining them or hashing out the bitcoin. The price of that can decide the worth of Bitcoin. Bitcoin shouldn’t be price $60,000 as a result of it solely prices you 14. At the moment it solely prices 14 or $15,000 to provide a bitcoin. And that’s like every commodity that determines the worth of that asset.  

Learn Extra: R1m Native v Offshore Problem: One 12 months in, Piet is cruising, however don’t rely out Magnus

On Bitcoin turning into extra priceless if there’s an ANC/EFF coalition in SA

Yeah, it turns into priceless within the sense that you could personal an asset which is freely transferable abroad, nevertheless it doesn’t make it intrinsically extra priceless. It’s only for you. However for the remainder of the world it has precisely the identical worth. However you possibly can swap it out for {dollars} if the on and off ramps can be found and free to make use of, which I feel they’re beginning to clamp down on a few of them. So that may be a danger you absorb proudly owning Bitcoin and Ethereum and one in every of this stuff is that they clamped down on, on and off ramps. So there’s a danger to any asset. It doesn’t matter how engaging it’s. And due to this fact, once more, you must method this as a ‘bundle of twigs’ issues. How a lot do you allocate to a number of the Bitcoin residing in South Africa? And by the way in which, in the meanwhile, change controls are principally, for most individuals, non-existent in South Africa. Actually, they relaxed within the finances a 12 months in the past, even additional. So it’s not like we’d like that proper now. However you by no means know issues might change sooner or later.

Learn Extra: BNC#5: Brutally sincere Magnus Heystek: Recent explanation why you MUST transfer your cash away from South Africa

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