Political scientist and former Oxford College Don RW Johnson shares key insights from SA’s most authoritative pre-election survey – the one one conducting face-to-face nationwide interviews reasonably than telephone surveys. He says the outcomes assist the view SA’s politics has modified extra up to now two months than within the earlier 20 years. Johnson factors out that the collapsing ANC vote (simply 41% nationally) stays fragile, and with the development persevering with, the whole lot factors to a coalition authorities after Could 29. Furthermore, provincial voter patterns recommend stress for better devolution and even secession secession will develop, significantly from KZN. He spoke to BizNews editor Alec Hogg.

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Edited transcript of the interview ___STEADY_PAYWALL___

Alec Hogg (00:08.366)
Political scientist R.W. Johnson wrote a BizNews premium column on the outcomes of the eNCA Markdata survey, launched over the weekend. We’ll focus on some particulars and implications.

Alec Hogg (00:31.15)
Mr. Johnson, nice to speak with you once more. Your latest columns, particularly on water points in Johannesburg and Durban, have been nicely acquired. As we speak, let’s delve into the eNCA Markdata outcomes and their significance in comparison with different polls.

RW Johnson (01:30.019)
MarkData conducts face-to-face interviews in varied languages throughout a nationally consultant pattern, together with rural areas. This units it other than smaller phone polls. In 2019, MarkData’s accuracy was notable, though not predictive. My involvement with eNCA is ongoing, and we’re presenting our findings via ETV.

Alec Hogg (03:33.486)
Relating to your collaboration with eNCA, may you elaborate?

RW Johnson (03:35.715)
I’ve been working with eNCA by invitation, presenting insights as we did in 2019. Nevertheless, I used to be stunned by the dearth of press protection on the latest BizNews convention.

Learn extra: 🔒 RW Johnson: Studying the election’24 tea leaves

Alec Hogg (04:12.334)
Our convention was for our group, not media protection. The important thing discovering of ANC’s decline in KwaZulu-Natal was vital.

RW Johnson (04:45.123)
The ANC’s decline isn’t remoted to KZN; it displays broader sentiment. Our survey additionally highlighted the rise of the MK Occasion in Mpumalanga and Gauteng. There’s potential for political shifts past these provinces.

RW Johnson (06:56.963)
Regardless of some ANC loyalists, there’s a notable want for change amongst voters, reflecting disappointment and disillusionment.

Alec Hogg (07:19.854)
As you talked about, the ANC’s fragility is clear with solely 13% assist in KwaZulu-Natal, a traditionally sturdy base for them.

RW Johnson (07:31.427)
Sure, KZN was their greatest province by way of membership for some time. This decline has possible affected the SACP as nicely, given their intertwined memberships. Our survey reveals widespread disillusionment, with many attributing points like inequality and poor public providers to ANC’s negligence and corruption.

Alec Hogg (09:40.078)
These findings are stark. Why, then, does the ANC nonetheless have 41% assist within the analysis?

RW Johnson (10:01.091)
The ANC’s decline from practically 70% in 2004 signifies a major shift. Nevertheless, loyal ANC voters, although dwindling, nonetheless maintain onto hope and loyalty. However upcoming management modifications and public dissatisfaction pose challenges for the ANC’s future.

Alec Hogg (12:20.91)
On the BizNews convention, there was speak of a doable authorities of nationwide unity. Would such a coalition be dangerous for the ANC’s accomplice?

RW Johnson (12:46.595)
Realistically, an ANC coalition with events like MK or EFF may set off financial turmoil. The DA faces dilemmas too, contemplating potential compromises and public backlash. The panorama is complicated, with varied components influencing future political situations.

RW Johnson (14:39.779)
The DA could discover itself in a troublesome place, navigating between undesirable coalition choices. An ANC minority authorities might be one other difficult situation, requiring fixed negotiation in parliament. Job creation, unemployment, load shedding, and crime stay prime considerations, overshadowing different political agendas like NHI and land reform, which lack vital public assist.

RW Johnson (16:39.811)
The voters’s priorities differ from the ANC’s give attention to points like NHI and land reform, with low public confidence within the authorities’s skill to deal with these challenges.

Learn extra: BNC#6: Corné Mulder – Solely coalitions, inter-party collaboration can unseat the ANC

Alec Hogg (17:30.126)
Voters appear to be making rational selections. Waiting for the subsequent 70 days, do you anticipate the traits of ANC’s decline, EFF’s energy, and MK’s emergence persevering with as much as the twenty ninth of Could?

Alec Hogg (18:06.11)
Will the ANC’s decline beneath 40%, as per your ballot displaying 41.5%, speed up by the twenty ninth of Could?

RW Johnson (18:21.507)
It’s unsure. Current political shifts point out a dynamic atmosphere, with vital modifications in comparison with the previous 20 years. We have to revisit key questions simply earlier than the election to seize the most recent sentiments.

Alec Hogg (19:38.222)
May you replace us on the important thing provincial battles: KwaZulu-Natal, Western Cape, and Gauteng?

RW Johnson (20:00.899)
In Gauteng, the ANC is performing higher than anticipated, round 46%, whereas the DA is within the low 20s. The Western Cape sees the DA at 47%, impacted by latest defections and EFF’s rising affect. Turnout dynamics can also play a vital position within the closing outcomes.

RW Johnson (22:00.963)
Anticipating turnout is difficult, with historic traits suggesting a decrease turnout regardless of excessive reported curiosity in politics. This might considerably have an effect on outcomes, making it a key issue to look at through the election.

RW Johnson (23:34.435)
KwaZulu-Natal presents a fancy image with no clear majority. MK, IFP, DA, ANC, and EFF all have vital assist, making coalition-building troublesome. The province reveals indicators of discontent and potential riot, elevating considerations about governance challenges.

RW Johnson (25:41.923)
The temper in KZN and nationally displays deep discontent, with considerations about ungovernability looming. The longer term stays unsure, and we’ll have to attend and see how occasions unfold.

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